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Thursday, May 24, 2007

Election predictions - the whole shebang

I did the old election prediction thing a while back and I think I'm going to revise it here.


Constituency Seats Result of 2002 election kingkane's Prediction
Carlow Kilkenny 5
FF 3, FG 1, Lab 1

FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1
I think that the two Labour candidates are too weak and transfers won't be tight enough to get them the seat especially when geography comes into play.
Cavan Monaghan 4
FF 2, FG 1, SF 1, Ind 1.
Rory O`Hanlon FF will be returned as Ceann Comhairle, making this a 4-seater.
FF: 1 FG: 2 SF: 1
Connolly has been a failure on the hospital and Conlon was selected much too late.
Clare 4
FF2, FG 1, Others 1

FF: 2 FG: 2
FG will deny the various FF's the chance to move outside their areas and gain votes. Indo Breen to be squeezed as people want a government.
Cork East 4
FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1

FF: 2 FG: 2
It seems to be forgotten that Sherlock Snr. used to struggle at one for a his seat. Also SF will eat into that vote a bit. So FG to gain in the end.
Cork North Central 4
FF 3, FG 1, Lab 1
Was 5 seats.
FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1
The entry of McCarthy has opened this open .FG should actually sneak it now but more likely it will stay the same
Cork North West 3
FF 2, FG 1

FF: 1 FG: 2
I think the vote management for FF is going to be truly terrible and that will cost them the seat.

Cork South Central 5
FF 3, FG 1, Green 1

FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1
Martin won't have the surplus to save Dennehy this time.
Cork South West 3
FF 2, FG 1

FF: 1 FG: 2
FF are content to lose this one as they know O'Donovan could be the sole TD going for reelection in 2012

Donegal North East 3
FF 2, Ind 1.
Niall Blaney (Ind) later joined FF.
FF: 2 FG: 1
Blaney to lose out and I'm coming round to the idea that SF might gain here too.
Donegal South West 3
FF 2, FG 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 SF: 1
The Cope to lose out.
Dublin Central 4
FF 2, Lab 1, Ind 1

FF: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1 Others: 1
FF have made a right mess of this. If they had run just Mary Fitz , they would have held it.
Dublin Mid West 4
FF 1, PD 1, Green 1
Was 3 seats.
FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1
I've changed my mind and now think that Harney's absent landlord bit is going to tell for her in the end.
Dublin North 4
FF 2, Lab 1, Green 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 SP: 1 Green: 1
I now think that Daly will take it. Labour should have found someone younger and earlier to replace Ryan.
Dublin North Central 3
FF 2, FG 1, Ind 1
Was 4 seats.
FF: 1 FG: 1 Green: 1
Dublin North East 3
FF 2, Lab 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1

Dublin North West 3
FF 2, Lab 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 SF: 1
I think that SF will eat into Labour enough that Tormey could get ahead of Shortall.
Dublin South 5
FF 2, FG 1, PD 1, Green 1

FF: 2 FG: 2 Green: 1
Sorry, Liz too inactive and lassiez faire about the whole thing
Dublin South Central 5
FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1, SF 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 2 SF: 1
Dublin South East 4
FF 1, Lab 1, PD 1, Green 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1
Dublin South West 4
FF 2, Lab 1, SF 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 SF: 1
Lenihan to lose out.
Dublin West 3
FF 1, Lab 1, SP 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1
Dun Laoghaire 5
FF 2, Lab 1, PD 1, Green 1

FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1
On a really bad day for FF, Andrews could be at risk. But should just hold on.
Galway East 4
FF 2, FG 1, Ind 1

FF: 2 FG: 2
Galway West 5
FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1, PD 1

FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Green: 1
Kerry North 3
FF 1, FG 1, SF 1

FG: 1 Lab: 1 SF: 1
Kerry South 3
FF 1, Lab 1, Ind 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1
Kildare North 4
FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1
Was 3 seats. By-election 2005 replaced FF with Ind.
FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1 Others: 1
Kildare South 3
FF 2, Lab 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1
Laois Offaly 5
FF 3, FG 1, PD 1

FF: 3 FG: 2
No more Parlon country
Limerick East 5
FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1, PD 1

FF: 2 FG: 2 Lab: 1
Limerick West 3
FF 2, FG 1

FF: 1 FG: 2
Brennan and Nix to swing it for FG.
Longford Westmeath 4
New constituency.
2002 results for Westmeath: FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1.
FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1
Louth 4
FF 2, FG 1, SF 1

FF: 1 FG: 2 SF: 1
Mayo 5
FF 2, FG 2, Ind 1
Beverly Flynn (FF) later became Ind
FF: 1 FG: 3 Others: 1
Cowley will hang on due to transfers from SF, Lab and Greens. That gets him ahead of Bev.
Meath East 3
New constituency
2002 results for Meath: FF 3, FG 2. By-election 2005 replaced FG with FG.
FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 1
Meath West 3
New constituency
2002 results for Meath: FF 3, FG 2. By-election 2005 replaced FG with FG.
FF: 2 FG: 1
Roscommon Leitrim South 3
New constituency
2002 result for Longford Roscommon: FF 2, FG 1, PD 1.
FF: 2 FG: 1
Sligo Leitrim North 3
New constituency
2002 result for Sligo Leitrim: FF 2, FG 1, Ind 1.
FF: 2 FG: 1
Tipperay North 3
FF 2, Ind 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1
Tipperay South 3
FF 1, FG 1, Ind 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 Others: 1
Waterford 4
FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1

FF: 2 FG: 1 Lab: 1
Wexford 5
FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1, Ind 1
Liam Twomey (Ind) later joined FG.
FF: 2 FG: 2 Lab: 1
Wicklow 5
FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1, Ind 1

FF: 1 FG: 1 Lab: 2 Green: 1

1 comment:

mgb said...

I get FF 61 and FG 57, and am too lazy to count the others.

Thats on the optimistic opposition side for both figures.